Here We Go Again (Vote Postponed, More Talks)

This is my stimulus update for Thursday, October 1.

Pelosi Changes Course

Yesterday, the Senate did pass the continuing resolution, and Donald Trump did sign it to fund the government through December 11, but that’s probably not what you’re most interested in, you’re interested in stimulus, and yesterday, as I told you, Pelosi and Mnuchin failed to come to an agreement in their 90-minute meeting yesterday, Pelosi said afterwards that the House would proceed to vote on the updated HEROES Act, however, she then changed course and decided to postpone that vote until at least today to allow for another shot at stimulus negotiations with the Secretary of the Treasury.

Mnuchin on Fox Business Last Night

Speaking of whom, Mnuchin was on Fox Business last night, talking to Lou Dobbs.  Mnuchin said that he and Pelosi are going to speak again today, he said there’s no way that Republicans would agree to a $2.2 trillion-dollar deal, he also said the disagreement with Pelosi is not only about the top line for the bill but also the details of what the money would be used for.  Mnuchin said that President Trump himself instructed Mnuchin to go up from the initial one-trillion-dollar proposal they were working on.

And if you haven’t noticed by now, Trump doesn’t really care about the details, he just wants to be able to say he got a deal done and sent out money to the people with the election in mind that is in 33 days away with millions of Americans casting their ballots before then.

What Mnuchin Proposed

Roll Call has some anonymous source who told them that Mnuchin’s offer was $1.62-trillion dollars, I’ve put together this chart here, this is very rough, so don’t take this as gospel, just according to Roll Call, and I’m cherry picking here, $250 billion for state and local government, $400 per week for supercharged unemployment, the FPUC, retroactive to September 12 and lasting through January 1, $175 billion for health care, and he did confirm that a second round of stimulus checks would be in there and that Democrats and Republicans are on the same page there, that’s not really news, he’s been saying that for weeks, stimulus checks are not where the fight is right now, it’s the package as a whole, as has been the case for months now.

Is McConnell On Board?

Roll Call is also reporting that according to their anonymous source, Mnuchin talked to McConnell after meeting with Pelosi yesterday, and McConnell implied that he just might be able to swing enough Republican votes on the supposed $1.62-trillion plan, but — drama, drama — a McConnell spokesman apparently denied that claim.

What’s Missing in Mnuchin’s Proposal

Reportedly missing from Mnuchin’s proposal, at least according to Roll Call, is the automatic boosters, such as the “third” stimulus check that was in the Problem Solvers Caucus’ proposal because you’ll remember that in the clip I showed you yesterday Mnuchin said he would be offering to Pelosi something like the Problem Solvers Caucus’ proposal, so it looks like as I speculated Mnuchin went for something more like the “base” Problem Solvers model without the boosters.

Pelosi This Morning on Stimulus Negotiations

Now let’s talk about what has gone on this morning.  Pelosi had a call this morning with other House Dems, and just going off what reporters who listened in on the call have said and tweeted, Pelosi said that she and Mnuchin are still “way off” on state and local funding but “closer” on healthcare and small business.

Apparently unhappy with Mnuchin’s $1.6-trillion offer yesterday, it sounded like Pelosi wanted him to go higher and that something is not better than nothing when it comes to a stimulus bill, I don’t necessarily agree with that.

The Takeaway

So what’s the takeaway here?  It is a marginally good sign that the House did postpone the vote on the updated HEROES Act last night, but Pelosi and Mnuchin are still almost $600 billion apart just on a top line with even more disagreement about the details.

They will speak again today, and we’ll have to wait to hear what transpires.

Meanwhile, House Republicans do have their discharge petition on the floor that if successful would force a vote on a PPP extension.  And of course, we have Senate Republicans to contend with as well.

Unemployment Update (Lost Wages Assistance)

Weekly jobless claims came out this morning as usual at eight hundred and thirty seven thousand, marginally fewer than last week, of course that number doesn’t include the roughly six hundred thousand PUA applications as well.

state unemployment memorandum

In terms of LWA, I am thrilled to report that people are reporting getting paid in Oregon, so now Oregon is purple on my map, and more people in California are reporting that they are receiving their fifth week of Lost Wages assistance.

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