3 Ways Ginsburg’s Passing Affects Stimulus

3 Ways Ginsburg’s Passing Affects Stimulus

This is my stimulus update for Saturday, September 19.

I’m going to talk about some congressional updates here and then spend the latter portion of this update talking about my thoughts on the passing of Ruth Bader Ginsburg and how that could possibly affect stimulus.

New Stimulus CBO Report

Speaking of stimulus, generally, a new CBO report has told us what we all know, that there are pros and cons to stimulus spending, according to the report, the 2020 stimulus legislation that has been passed, including the CARES Act, is projected to add $2.3 trillion dollars to the deficit in fiscal year 2020 and $0.6 trillion in 2021. That’s the bad news.

Good news is that the stimulus legislation will increase GDP by 4.7% in 2020 and 3.1% percent in 2021.

So we’re getting a 59 cents on the dollar return on stimulus spending, not so great in the long run, but very necessary in the short run to prevent complete economic collapse.

Continuing Resolutions (Government Funding) Update

On Monday House Democrats will introduce the stopgap spending bill, the continuing resolutions, to prevent a government shutdown.  They were thought to introduce that legislation yesterday Friday, but it looks like Monday.

Yesterday Pelosi was on Bloomberg TV and said that with respect to the government funding bills, “We’re just working out the details. But we hope to have it today so we can bring it to the floor early next week and then go to the Senate.”

Ruth Bader Ginsburg’s Passing

Now, I’m sure you have heard by now that Supreme Court Associate Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg passed away yesterday of complications from pancreatic cancer at the age of 87.

What does this mean for our friends in Congress and potential stimulus negotiations?  Well, we know that Trump will nominate a successor to Ginsburg very soon, this morning he tweeted, “GOP, we were put in this position of power and importance to make decisions for the people who so proudly elected us, the most important of which has long been considered to be the selection of United States Supreme Court Justices. We have this obligation, without delay!”

He said “without delay,” so I expect that this being an election year that Trump will nominate a successor to Justice Ginsburg in the coming days, and we know that McConnell has said — contrary to his position with Merrick Garland, Obama’s nominee to replace Justice Scalia upon Scalia’s passing in 2016 — that Trump’s nominee will certainly get a vote in the Senate.

And McConnell uses kind of a flimsy argument, frankly, in his statement yesterday on the passing of Justice Ginsburg he said, “In the last midterm election before Justice Scalia’s death in 2016, Americans elected a Republican Senate majority because we pledged to check and balance the last days of a lame-duck president’s second term. We kept our promise. Since the 1880s, no Senate has confirmed an opposite-party president’s Supreme Court nominee in a presidential election year. By contrast, Americans reelected our majority in 2016 and expanded it in 2018 because we pledged to work with President Trump and support his agenda, particularly his outstanding appointments to the federal judiciary. Once again, we will keep our promise. President Trump’s nominee will receive a vote on the floor of the United States Senate.”

So McConnell’s basically saying, “Well, it’s different now because the President was a different party than the Senate in 2016, but now in 2020 the President and the Senate are the same party, so it’s different.”

But in 2016 McConnell said, “The American people should have a voice in the selection of their next Supreme Court Justice. Therefore, this vacancy should not be filled until we have a new president.”  Yesterday Chuck Schumer tweeted the exact same two sentences, word-for-word, yesterday.  But of course Schumer also tweeted back in 2016 after Scalia’s death, “Attn GOP: Senate has confirmed seventeen SCOTUS justices in presidential election years.  #do your job.”

And of course Republican Senator Lindsey Graham said in March 2016: “I want you to use my words against me. If there’s a Republican president in 2016 and a vacancy occurs in the last year of the first term, you can say, ‘Lindsey Graham said let’s let the next president, whoever it might be, make that nomination.’”

But then this past May he said 2020 is different than 2016.

Frankly, this is all exhausting, can we just stop pretending here?  Everyone obviously wants the Supreme Court stacked in their ideological favor.

So, Mitch, Lindsey, Chuck, why not, instead of talking out of both sides of your mouth depending on who the president is when a justice passes or retires in an election year, just be honest.

You want the court stacked in your favor, you know it, I know it, everybody knows it, stop being stupid.  Everybody knows what the truth is, you don’t have to play these stupid contradictory political games.

Now, McConnell has not stated yet whether he will seek the vote on Trump’s nominee before the election rather than after.  I think the smart move politically would be for him to do so.

Why?  Because nothing gets your base fired up like a good old-fashioned Supreme Court confirmation hearing.  Just think back to the Kavanaugh hearing two years ago, almost exactly two years ago, that divided the country and fired up the voter base because it reminded people of how much power a president has long before he or she leaves office, even after they pass away, in the form of whom they got on the Supreme Court.

Now, this could also fire up Biden’s base as well, especially if Trump’s nominee is somebody who feels very Republican-y like Brett Kavanaugh.  Maybe the fight wouldn’t be as crazy if Trump’s nominee is someone like Amy Coney Barrett, but we’ll have to see who the president nominates.

3 Ways Ginsburg’s Passing Could Affect Second Stimulus

How does this all bode for stimulus?  Well, I think there’s a few things here.

Well, first, the average confirmation process for a Supreme Court justice in the past 70 years or so has been about 50 days, so this process could preoccupy the Republican-dominated Senate away from stimulus, keeping in mind that the Senate is already somewhat “meh” toward more stimulus, the Republicans voted for something to the tune of $300 billion in new money, and they kind of washed their hands clean of the whole thing, patting themselves on the back that they have done their part.  Also keep in mind that many Senators, the ones up for re-election, are eager to go back home as soon as possible to campaign to defend their seat.

Second, not only could the confirmation process of Trump’s nominee preoccupy divide Senate Republicans even further.

Republicans need 51 votes to confirm Trump’s nominee.  They currently have 53 seats in the Senate, and at least two Republican senators do not appear that they would vote in favor of Trump’s replacement.

Yesterday, before the news of Ginsburg’s passing broke, Republican Senator Lisa Murkowski told Alaska Public Radio, “I would not vote to confirm a Supreme Court nominee. We are 50-some days away from an election,” of course yesterday we were 46 days, but you get the point.

And Republican Senator Susan Collins of Maine told Jonathan Martin of the New York Times earlier this month that she would not seat a Supreme Court justice in October before the election.  53 Republicans senators, two of them right here, don’t look like if they stick to what they said, they would vote to confirm Trump’s nominee.

That brings you down to 51 potential Republican senators voting in favor of Trump’s man or woman.  You lose one more, like maybe a Mitt Romney-type, you’ve lost the confirmation because I doubt that any Democrat would vote to confirm Trump’s nominee.

This sort of thing could divide Republicans even more, which would note bode well for stimulus at least from a congressional standpoint.

And third, as though the presidential election that will be held in 45 days is not divisive enough, I believe that the passing of Justice Ginsburg will fan the election flames even more.  This could provide even further impetus for President Trump to take stimulus matters into his own hands if Congress continues to be unwilling to do so in a reasonable manner.

Unemployment (Lost Wages Assistance) Update

I am seeing reports, to my surprise, of Nebraska paying out three weeks already, Nebraska was a late comer, the last state to apply, I’ve seen reports of Colorado being paid as well as Delaware.

Continuing to see positive reports from New York of people getting paid as well as Connecticut.  Crossing my fingers for South Carolina to pay on Monday, that’s what they said.