Mnuchin and Kudlow Talk Stimulus

This is my clickbait-free stimulus update for Friday, July 3rd.

CBO Unemployment Projections

Like I told you in my update yesterday, the Department of Labor has released the June jobs report showing an unemployment rate across the country nationwide of 11.1%, potentially as high as 12.1% after taking into account that misclassification error that we’ve spoken about previously.

Well, now the CBO, the Congressional Budget Office has come up with its projections of the average unemployment rate across the country throughout the rest of the decade. They’re projecting an average unemployment rate of 6.1% through 2030.

This is significantly higher than the 4.2% projection made in January of this year, obviously before COVID-19 took hold here in the United States. CBO also projects that the overall size of the economy will be 3.4% lower each year throughout the decade than pre-pandemic projection show.

First Stimulus Updates ($500 for Dependents + Debit Cards)

IRS gave updated guidance on its website.

For those who use the non-filers tool and you received a stimulus payment for yourself and/or your spouse, but you did not receive a stimulus payment for your qualifying children, the $500,

Here’s what the IRS had to say.

If you use a non-filers tool before May 17th, you did not need to take any action. The IRS is actively working on a method to fix this error and automatically issue the additional $500 EIP stimulus payment to the impacted individuals as soon as possible.

We will continue to provide updates as more information is available.

Next update from the IRS has to do with the stimulus debit cards. Apparently in early July, which is possibly as soon as this coming week, the IRS will be sending out letters to those who have not yet activated their stimulus debit cards.

So if you already got your stimulus payment by check or direct deposit, this doesn’t apply to you.

If you’re still waiting for your stimulus, it’s possible it came on a debit card and you may have accidentally thrown it away or something.

IRS says, the taxpayers who were mailed a debit card for their economic impact payment but haven’t activated it yet will receive a letter in early July reminding them that they can activate it to access their money or obtain a free replacement card if needed.

For the reminder mailing, the treasury department logo will be visible on the envelope and letter.

Here’s a mockup of an envelope. The envelope looks something like this. You can see the Department of the Treasury seal right there on the left hand side.

I think they’re doing this because of the whole confusion regarding the Money Network Cardholder Services envelope. It just sounds like a scam.

People understandably threw that thing away. Because that was the piece of mail the debit cards were originally mailed in.

They want to make this piece of mail look more legitimate.

They have the Department of Treasury logo there. It says not a bill or an advertisement, important information about your Economic Impact Payment.

This isn’t an actual picture of an envelope, this is just kind of a mockup of the envelope, but it should look something similar like this. So keep your eyes out for an envelope like this if you haven’t received your first stimulus payment yet.

The IRS goes on to say the inside of the letter will include instructions for people who haven’t activated their card yet, and includes a picture of what the debit card looks like.

People expecting EIP payments should look for this mailing and activate their debit cards as soon as possible. So if you still haven’t received your first stimulus payment yet, keep your eye on your mailbox next week.

Steven Mnuchin on Next Round of Stimulus

Now let’s talk about Steven Mnuchin and Larry Kudlow. They were both asked about the next round of stimulus yesterday.

Steven Mnuchin was asked at the tail end of the press conference that was held yesterday after the release of the jobs report. This was actually the last question he was asked during that Q&A. Here’s the clip.

Steven Mnuchin: We’ll take one more question in the back. In the back.

Reporter: Mr. Secretary, where’s the treasury department on sending stimulus check to mixed status families. There is a law suit that was allowed to proceed. Are you guys going to be doing that anytime soon, or you’re going to leave it to the courts to decide whether the treasury department has to do it?

Steven Mnuchin: I’m sorry, I didn’t understand the question. Was the question on stimulus checks?

Reporter: To mixed status family. So parents of American citizen children, people who are married to undocumented.

Steven Mnuchin: Our position is that legal Americans, American citizens should get the payments. That’s our focus. If people are here illegally, they’re not going to get economic payments. But let me just say we’re very focused on, as part of the next CARES Act, we’re going to seriously consider whether we need to put more payments and direct payments over, it worked very well. Thank you everybody.

She’s obviously asking about the situation in which American citizens are denied a stimulus payment because they are married to someone without a valid social security number.

Earlier this week I told you about Marco Rubio’s bill that he’s putting forward to help fix that situation with the over 1 million American citizens who are in this situation.

So this is what this report is asking about. I think Treasury Secretary Mnuchin knows what she’s getting at, but he kind of avoids the question,

I mean, all he says is that the administration’s position is that legal Americans, American citizens should get the payments. That’s our focus. If people are here illegally, they will not get the payments.

Well, that’s not what’s been playing out across the country, right? That’s not what’s being played out in the CARES Act that the president signed.

Those words seem a little bit hollow to me. He went on to say, “Let me say we’re very focused on, we will seriously consider more direct payments.” Again, that’s kind of more the same. We will consider it, we will consider it, we will consider, right?

Larry Kudlow on Next Round of Stimulus

Now let’s talk about Larry Kudlow on Jonathan Ferro Bloomberg yesterday. So they’re talking about the jobs report.

Larry Kudlow is saying it is a spectacular number, helps the overall situation enormously, et cetera.

Then Jonathan Ferro says, “Well, you can’t really extrapolate the June jobs report because a lot of states are rolling back their reopenings, right?”

It’s not like you can just extrapolate this data and think, okay, it’s all going to be a better roses from here.

What does this mean, Larry, with respect to more direct payments, more stimulus payments, more help for the people? Here’s the clip.

Jonathan Ferro: I think a lot of people believed you can’t extrapolate this out too far because we’ve had to slow down or reverse the reopenings elsewhere, Larry, and for that reason many people think more help is needed. This is what the president had to say in the last 24 hours when he was asked about more direct payments for individuals. He said, “I support it, but it has to be done properly. And I support actually larger numbers than the Democrats.” So that doesn’t sound like a consideration anymore, it sounds like the president’s made a decision. Is that a fair characterization, Larry?

Larry Kudlow: Well, no. I don’t think final decision been made at all. President has always favored that, but he wants it to be done in a very smart way and in a targeted way. So I think the shape of any kind of package is still very much up in the air. Look, he has emphasized a number of programs. Now, again, negotiations won’t formerly begin until after the July 4th recess. He’s talked about payroll tax cut. He’s talked about re-employment benefits and bonuses because we don’t like the $600 plus up on unemployment. It’s a disincentive to work.

Larry Kudlow: He’s talked about helping the restaurant industry, the tourism industry, the entertainment industry with better business write-offs. He’s talked about capital gains. He’s talked about investment write-offs. There’s still a very large package here and we won’t know until we go into these negotiations. So, he’s right. Everything’s on the table or many things are on the table. It’s just a question of shaping it and do it smart. I thought the original rescue package was very smart. I don’t know if everything has to apply all over again. We’ll see. We assess the economy, that’s the key point.

Kudlow’s answer is all over the place and it leads me to believe that the White House still does not have a coherent goal with respect to the next stimulus package.

Kudlow said it himself. It’s all still on the table.

He brings up a lot of things.

Payroll tax cuts; reemployment benefits and bonuses; restaurant, tourism, entertainment write-offs; capital gains, investment write-offs.

We won’t know until they go into these negotiations. Many things are on the table. It’s a question of shaping and doing it smart. We assess the economy as a key point.

He’s saying. “Look, White House isn’t really pushing for anything in particular at this point. We don’t really know until we go into negotiations with the Congress”.

Speaking of Congress, they’re now out for a two week break until July 20th.

Lindsey Graham on Next Round of Stimulus

And Lindsey Graham had the gall to get on Fox News yesterday and say, “We need to get off our butt and get this done,” referring to the next stimulus relief bill.

He literally said that yesterday when he’s on his way out for a two week recess.

The Senate could very well have:

A, taken this matter up regarding our stimulus bill last month, or B, canceled the two week recess that they will be enjoying for the next two weeks.

There’s no law that says the Senate has to take this two week recess. They could very well cancel it.

They canceled their one week recess in March that was scheduled due to pushing out the CARES Act.

So they very well could have done that. So I think that this statement here is a little disingenuous too.

We need to get off her butt and get this done. He didn’t use the word butt by the way, he used a different word.

Steven Mnuchin on the Reopenings

Mnuchin also said in the press conference yesterday that the White House does not regret pushing states to end their lockdown measures.

White House is moving forward with no regrets.

Cancel the Task Force?

Also yesterday Republican Congressman Andy Biggs, representative from Arizona, called for the White House Coronavirus Task Force to be disbanded.

He said Dr. Anthony Fauci and Dr. Deborah Birx continue to contradict many of president Trump’s stated goals and actions for returning to normalcy as we know more about the COVID-19 outbreak.

He said this is causing panic, it compromises our economic recovery. We can protect our most vulnerable from the COVID-19 outbreak while still protecting lives and livelihoods of the rest of the population.

I think some people are maybe panicked but I think a lot of us were still just being cautious. We’re being smart about things, right?

We’re not just rushing into a normal life because the state of things right now is not normal.

I think it’s a little of an overkill to call for the coronavirus taskforce to be disbanded simply because you don’t like what Birx and Fauci are saying sometimes.

Congressman Andy Biggs, I think that if Trump wanted to fire these two, he would have done it.

So, I don’t know if he needs you to tell him what to do regarding the coronavirus taskforce. That’s just my two cents.

Preventing China From Exploiting COVID-19 Act

Also yesterday in the house three house Democrats, Kendra Horn of Oklahoma who voted against the HEROES Act, Stephanie Murphy of Florida and Max Rose of New York introduced the Preventing China from Exploiting COVID-19 Act, which calls for the director of national intelligence to produce an assessment on potential ways China has and could undermine the United States and its allies interests during the pandemic.

Murphy said this bill would provide US policymakers with an intelligence community assessment of the different ways the Chinese government may be seeking to exploit the pandemic.

Armed with this information we can hold the Chinese government accountable and protect American interests.

COVID-19 Updates

United States reported over 55,000 new cases yesterday, surpassing Wednesday’s record of 52,000 new cases. Florida alone reported over 10,000 new cases of coronavirus.

In Texas, Governor Greg Abbott issued a statewide mandate requiring Texians to wear masks in public in any county with 20 or more positive COVID-19 cases.

Pence, interestingly enough, in an event in Florida, Vice President Pence said, “It’s not one large pandemic, but rather pandemics that emerge individually.”

This is kind of becoming the White House narrative, right? Because look, the White House wants to distance himself from the problem.

They don’t want to say this is one large pandemic at the national level, they want to say, like Pence is saying, “These are individual small pandemics at the local level and therefore the local people in power, at the state level the governors and the county level, they need to take responsibility for this.”

That’s the positioning that Pence is playing here and I think when Trump is really going to be pressed about the COVID-19 situation in this country, especially going to the election, he’s going to point the finger at governors, right?

Because these are pandemics, not one nationwide pandemic apparently.

Now, let’s keep in mind case counts are going up. But if you look at the chart of death counts, they’ve actually gone down nationwide.

What do we make of this? There’s a lot of factors here.

Again, I’m not a virologist, I’m not an epidemiologist. Just common sense says, yeah, we’re testing more people now so obviously the number of reported cases is going to go up.

We also have people who know more about this stuff than I do say, well, it’s not just a result of increased testing, but it’s also a result there are actually increased cases in various parts of the country.

Also keep in mind that many experts are saying that with these cases, a lot of people being tested positive these days, there are a lot more younger people now than were tested positive previously.

So that could explain why the deaths haven’t necessarily gone up. But those younger people need to keep in mind that they can still infect those who may be immunocompromised, older, more susceptible to suffering more serious consequences from COVID-19 disease.

A lot of factors here. One thing is there just might be a lag here in the deaths.

A lot of factors here. I don’t claim to be an expert on this stuff, but please just keep in mind.

The cases are up. If we look at the deaths, that’s actually kind of staggered down a bit. Please keep that in mind.

Nevertheless, a member of Trump’s own administration, Admiral Brett Giroir, the assistant secretary for health at the Department of Health and Human Services, said we are not flattening the curve right now. The curve is still going up.

This is a little bit interesting to me because we’re testing more people, so if you’re just kind of looking at the curve itself, obviously it’s going to go up.

Admiral also said that the administration believes the current outbreaks are due to people under the age of 35 gathering without wearing masks or following social distancing measures.

Dr. Anthony Fauci said that we are not going in the right direction.

We need to realize that if we do not adhere to the guidelines as we’re trying to open, reopen, and I don’t mean officially, I mean the citizenry, the people that are out there, we’re going to be in some serious difficulty. The whole enterprise could be at risk.

In terms of vaccination, Fauci said the goal was to have hundreds of millions of doses of the vaccine by early 2021 and a billion or more doses by this time next year.