This is my stimulus update for Monday, August 3.
So stimulus negotiations between Mnuchin, Meadows, Pelosi, and Schumer are continuing today for the seventh day, six straight days last week, no negotiations yesterday apart from staffer meetings, but they are continuing today.
Stimulus Negotiation Status
Each of the four negotiators had a somewhat positive message after Saturday’s three-plus-hour meeting, but they were cautious in their words, expressing that while progress was made on Saturday, there’s still a long way to go.
All four negotiators said something to that effect yesterday, Sunday.
In fact, Mark Meadows, he’s not optimistic that a deal will be done in the very near term.
Our Impatient President
Reports are that President Trump is growing increasingly impatient regarding the stimulus negotiations. He looks at the polls, they don’t look good, he sees an election that will be held, despite his tweet last week, exactly three months from today, although much of it will largely be done by mail in the preceding weeks.
Trump himself said last week, “You got to work on the evictions so people don’t get evicted. You work on the payments to the people. The rest of it, we’re so far apart we don’t care.”
But we know that he does care about other things, like the payroll tax cut, and maybe in his mind that’s a “payment to the people,” I don’t know.
But nevertheless in Trump’s mind it’s the people who will go to the polls or vote by mail in three months or less, at the top of his mind are the evictions and the payments to the people, which I take to mean unemployment and probably stimulus checks as well, but obviously the unemployment is the most pressing.
White House Taking Stimulus Into Its Own Hands?
So reports are that the White House is researching ways that Trump could use the powers of the presidency via an executive order or otherwise to do something to extend the enhanced unemployment benefits or the federal eviction moratorium while the negotiators work it out.
In fact, just yesterday in the Wall Street Journal, economist Stephen Moore who worked with Larry Kudlow on the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act passed in 2017, that was the big tax act, Trump wanted to nominate Moore to the Federal Reserve Board of Governors but his appointment didn’t pass the Senate, anyway, my point is, Trump listens to this guy, Stephen Moore, and yesterday in the Wall Street Journal Stephen Moore wrote an op-ed called “How Trump Can Deliver Tax Relief Without Congress: Suspend collection of the payroll levy using the same authority that extended the filing deadline to July.”
In this article, Moore says, “The president needs to pull an end run, and there’s a legal way to do that. He should declare a national economic emergency and announce that the Internal Revenue Service will immediately stop collecting the payroll tax. This is technically called a deferral of the tax payments.”
So Moore’s entire argument here is that Trump should exert presidential authority, which Moore believes that Trump has in this case, to unilaterally suspend the payroll tax cut.
And reports are that some in the White House are looking at ways that Trump could potentially do this for other measures as well, such as the eviction moratorium as well as unemployment.
I doubt that if this is even possible, they would pull this kind of punch for a stimulus check, it would probably just be for the most pressing manners, unemployment and the eviction moratorium.
A Last Resort
Nevertheless, it seems that this wouldn’t be the preferred path and that the White House would still obviously prefer the “traditional route” of all the next stimulus going through Congress, but this is something to keep an eye on.
Frankly, I would personally prefer that the negotiations between the four — Mnuchin, Meadows, and Schumer — keep up that positive momentum from Saturday so they can strike a deal this week.
That’s me being optimistic. The pessimist in me says, no way, we’ll see what happens. But I think we’d all agree that would be the preferred option to pushing the boundaries of presidential power.
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