Obama Advisors Supports Mnuchin’s Stimulus Proposal
This is my stimulus update for Tuesday, October 6th.
Non-Filers Deadline Moved to November 21st
Little bit of first stimulus news for you, the IRS has moved the deadline for non-filers to use the non-filers tool from October 15th to November 21st, giving folks an extra five weeks to use the Non-Filers Tool.
IRS Commissioner Charles Rettig said, “We took this step to provide more time for those who have not yet received a payment to register to get their money, including those in low-income and underserved communities.”
Trump COVID-19 Update and Tweets
As you’ve probably heard, Trump is out of the hospital, and before he left he tweeted, “Feeling really good! Don’t be afraid of COVID. Don’t let it dominate your life. We have developed, under the Trump Administration, some really great drugs and knowledge. I feel better than I did twenty years ago!”
Trump also tweeted something else this morning, and this tweet that I’m going to show you in a bit, Twitter actually hid it from normal view for “spreading misleading and potentially harmful information related to COVID-19.”
That tweet read, “Flu season is coming up! Many people every year, sometimes over 100,000, and despite the Vaccine, die from the Flu. Are we going to close down our Country? No, we have learned to live with it, just like we are learning to live with Covid, in most populations far less lethal!!!”
The reality, of course, is that far more people have died this year in the United States from COVID-19 than died from the flu in the previous five flu seasons combined according to CDC data. Trump also tweeted this morning that he is looking forward to the next debate that will be held next Thursday and of course the vice presidential debate is tomorrow evening.
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell on Stimulus
Now, on to stimulus. This morning Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell spoke at the National Association for Business Economics and he said, quote, “Too little support would lead to a weak recovery, creating unnecessary hardship for households and businesses. Over time, household insolvencies and business bankruptcies would rise, harming the productive capacity of the economy and holding back wage growth. By contrast, the risks of overdoing it [referring to stimulus of course] seem, for now, to be smaller. Even if policy actions ultimately prove to be greater than needed, they will not go to waste.”
Here is the Fed chairman once again urging Congress to think big with stimulus and not worry about thinking too big.
Pelosi and Mnuchin Stimulus Negotiation Update
Yesterday Pelosi and Mnuchin had an approximately one-hour phone call, going back and forth on various numbers in their respective proposals and plan to speak again today.
We have no news as to whether or not Mnuchin has gone up from $1.6-trillion or whether Pelosi has gone down from $2.2 trillion,
Obama Economist on Mnuchin’s Stimulus Proposal
Interestingly enough, economist and Harvard professor Jason Furman, who was Barack Obama’s economic policy director for Obama’s 2008 campaign and whom President Obama named chairman of the Council of Economic advisors during his second term, this guy said, and I quote, “I think Secretary Mnuchin’s last offer was perfectly reasonable. I’d love to see [Pelosi] try to improve on it. But you could also declare victory … Democrats have already achieved a lot of their objectives.”
So that’s interesting. Here’s an Obama guy saying that, Mnuchin’s deal looked pretty good.
Best and Worst Case Short-Term Stimulus Proposals
So what are we looking at here? Well, the best case scenario obviously is that Mnuchin and Pelosi agree to a stimulus deal that wins the hearts of Congressional Dems and McConnell is able to rally the handful of Senate Republicans necessary to push it through the Senate, Trump signs it before the election, we get stimulus, right. Now, what’s the worst-case scenario?
Worst-case scenario for stimulus in the short-term, I believe, is Nancy and Steve don’t reach a deal by the election, Biden wins, and lame duck Trump stops caring throughout November, December, and into January when with the late fall and early winter COVID-19 cases, combined with seasonal influenza, things could get really, really bad in our country.
Now Biden would obviously pursue more stimulus if he won, if he wins, right, he has said as much, but we’d have to wait until late January at the earliest.
Supreme Court Update
As I said earlier this week, the Senate is moving forward full-steam ahead with Amy Coney Barrett’s Supreme Court confirmation process, despite three Republican senators having tested positive for COVID-19.
Just today Republican Senator Ted Cruz said that he believes Republicans have the votes necessary to confirm Judge Barrett.
He said the Republicans have a solid 51 votes and that he believes it is critical to confirm Judge Barrett before Election Day.
Unemployment Update (Lost Wages Assistance Program)
Now on to unemployment, not much update, we are still waiting on the slow six as I’m calling them — Kansas, New Jersey, Alaska, Nevada, Virginia, and Michigan — to start paying people the money.
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