Obama Economist Likes Mnuchin’s Stimulus Plan

Obama Advisors Supports Mnuchin’s Stimulus Proposal

This is my stimulus update for Tuesday, October 6th.

Non-Filers Deadline Moved to November 21st

Little bit of first stimulus news for you, the IRS has moved the deadline for non-filers to use the non-filers tool from October 15th to November 21st, giving folks an extra five weeks to use the Non-Filers Tool.

IRS Commissioner Charles Rettig said, “We took this step to provide more time for those who have not yet received a payment to register to get their money, including those in low-income and underserved communities.”

Trump COVID-19 Update and Tweets

As you’ve probably heard, Trump is out of the hospital, and before he left he tweeted, “Feeling really good!  Don’t be afraid of COVID.  Don’t let it dominate your life.  We have developed, under the Trump Administration, some really great drugs and knowledge.  I feel better than I did twenty years ago!”

Trump also tweeted something else this morning, and this tweet that I’m going to show you in a bit, Twitter actually hid it from normal view for “spreading misleading and potentially harmful information related to COVID-19.”

That tweet read, “Flu season is coming up! Many people every year, sometimes over 100,000, and despite the Vaccine, die from the Flu. Are we going to close down our Country? No, we have learned to live with it, just like we are learning to live with Covid, in most populations far less lethal!!!”

The reality, of course, is that far more people have died this year in the United States from COVID-19 than died from the flu in the previous five flu seasons combined according to CDC data.  Trump also tweeted this morning that he is looking forward to the next debate that will be held next Thursday and of course the vice presidential debate is tomorrow evening.

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell on Stimulus

Now, on to stimulus.  This morning Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell spoke at the National Association for Business Economics and he said, quote, “Too little support would lead to a weak recovery, creating unnecessary hardship for households and businesses.  Over time, household insolvencies and business bankruptcies would rise, harming the productive capacity of the economy and holding back wage growth.  By contrast, the risks of overdoing it [referring to stimulus of course] seem, for now, to be smaller.  Even if policy actions ultimately prove to be greater than needed, they will not go to waste.”

Here is the Fed chairman once again urging Congress to think big with stimulus and not worry about thinking too big.

Pelosi and Mnuchin Stimulus Negotiation Update

Yesterday Pelosi and Mnuchin had an approximately one-hour phone call, going back and forth on various numbers in their respective proposals and plan to speak again today.

We have no news as to whether or not Mnuchin has gone up from $1.6-trillion or whether Pelosi has gone down from $2.2 trillion,

Obama Economist on Mnuchin’s Stimulus Proposal

Interestingly enough, economist and Harvard professor Jason Furman, who was Barack Obama’s economic policy director for Obama’s 2008 campaign and whom President Obama named chairman of the Council of Economic advisors during his second term, this guy said, and I quote, “I think Secretary Mnuchin’s last offer was perfectly reasonable. I’d love to see [Pelosi] try to improve on it. But you could also declare victory … Democrats have already achieved a lot of their objectives.”

So that’s interesting.  Here’s an Obama guy saying that, Mnuchin’s deal looked pretty good.

Best and Worst Case Short-Term Stimulus Proposals

So what are we looking at here?  Well, the best case scenario obviously is that Mnuchin and Pelosi agree to a stimulus deal that wins the hearts of Congressional Dems and McConnell is able to rally the handful of Senate Republicans necessary to push it through the Senate, Trump signs it before the election, we get stimulus, right.  Now, what’s the worst-case scenario?

Worst-case scenario for stimulus in the short-term, I believe, is Nancy and Steve don’t reach a deal by the election, Biden wins, and lame duck Trump stops caring throughout November, December, and into January when with the late fall and early winter COVID-19 cases, combined with seasonal influenza, things could get really, really bad in our country.

Now Biden would obviously pursue more stimulus if he won, if he wins, right, he has said as much, but we’d have to wait until late January at the earliest.

Supreme Court Update

As I said earlier this week, the Senate is moving forward full-steam ahead with Amy Coney Barrett’s Supreme Court confirmation process, despite three Republican senators having tested positive for COVID-19.

Just today Republican Senator Ted Cruz said that he believes Republicans have the votes necessary to confirm Judge Barrett.

He said the Republicans have a solid 51 votes and that he believes it is critical to confirm Judge Barrett before Election Day.

Unemployment Update (Lost Wages Assistance Program)

state unemployment memorandum

Now on to unemployment, not much update, we are still waiting on the slow six as I’m calling them — Kansas, New Jersey, Alaska, Nevada, Virginia, and Michigan — to start paying people the money.

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    협력하는 파트너사: 골드리치증권는 공기업은 물론 금융기관들 및 다양한 협력사와 함께 동행해오고.

    해외선물이란?
    다양한 정보를 참고하세요.

    해외선물은 국외에서 거래되는 파생금융상품 중 하나로, 지정된 기초자산(예시: 주식, 화폐, 상품 등)을 바탕로 한 옵션계약 약정을 의미합니다. 근본적으로 옵션은 특정 기초자산을 향후의 어떤 시기에 일정 금액에 사거나 매도할 수 있는 자격을 부여합니다. 국외선물옵션은 이러한 옵션 계약이 해외 마켓에서 거래되는 것을 의미합니다.

    국외선물은 크게 콜 옵션과 매도 옵션으로 나뉩니다. 매수 옵션은 특정 기초자산을 미래에 일정 가격에 사는 권리를 부여하는 반면, 매도 옵션은 명시된 기초자산을 미래에 정해진 금액에 팔 수 있는 권리를 제공합니다.

    옵션 계약에서는 미래의 명시된 일자에 (만기일이라 지칭되는) 일정 금액에 기초자산을 사거나 매도할 수 있는 권리를 보유하고 있습니다. 이러한 가격을 실행 가격이라고 하며, 종료일에는 해당 권리를 행사할지 여부를 선택할 수 있습니다. 따라서 옵션 계약은 투자자에게 향후의 시세 변화에 대한 안전장치나 이익 창출의 기회를 부여합니다.

    국외선물은 마켓 참가자들에게 다양한 투자 및 매매거래 기회를 마련, 외환, 상품, 주식 등 다양한 자산유형에 대한 옵션 계약을 망라할 수 있습니다. 투자자는 풋 옵션을 통해 기초자산의 낙폭에 대한 보호를 받을 수 있고, 콜 옵션을 통해 호황에서의 이익을 타깃팅할 수 있습니다.

    국외선물 거래의 원리

    행사 금액(Exercise Price): 외국선물에서 실행 금액은 옵션 계약에 따라 지정된 금액으로 계약됩니다. 만기일에 이 금액을 기준으로 옵션을 실현할 수 있습니다.
    만료일(Expiration Date): 옵션 계약의 만료일은 옵션의 행사가 불가능한 마지막 날짜를 지칭합니다. 이 일자 다음에는 옵션 계약이 소멸되며, 더 이상 거래할 수 없습니다.
    풋 옵션(Put Option)과 콜 옵션(Call Option): 풋 옵션은 기초자산을 특정 가격에 팔 수 있는 권리를 허락하며, 콜 옵션은 기초자산을 지정된 금액에 사는 권리를 허락합니다.
    계약료(Premium): 해외선물 거래에서는 옵션 계약에 대한 프리미엄을 납부해야 합니다. 이는 옵션 계약에 대한 비용으로, 마켓에서의 수요량와 공급에 따라 변동됩니다.
    행사 방안(Exercise Strategy): 거래자는 만료일에 옵션을 실행할지 여부를 결정할 수 있습니다. 이는 시장 상황 및 투자 전략에 따라 다르며, 옵션 계약의 이익을 극대화하거나 손해를 감소하기 위해 선택됩니다.
    시장 위험요인(Market Risk): 해외선물 거래는 시장의 변동성에 작용을 받습니다. 시세 변화이 예상치 못한 방향으로 일어날 경우 손해이 발생할 수 있으며, 이러한 마켓 위험요인를 축소하기 위해 거래자는 전략을 수립하고 투자를 계획해야 합니다.
    골드리치와 동반하는 국외선물은 안전하고 확신할 수 있는 운용을 위한 가장좋은 선택입니다. 고객님들의 투자를 뒷받침하고 안내하기 위해 우리는 최선을 기울이고 있습니다. 함께 더 나은 내일를 향해 계속해나가세요.

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