Congress Buys Two More Days As Bernie Backs Down

This is my stimulus update for Saturday, December 19th. 

So, disappointingly but not surprisingly, there was no breakthrough yesterday, Congress did pass a two-day continuing resolution, a stopgap measure, to keep the government funded at current levels through Sunday, House passed it three twenty to sixty, Senate passed it unanimously, Trump did sign this last night just after ten P.M. Eastern Time, so by all indications, it looks like they’re trying to wrap this all up by tomorrow night, will that happen, we shall see. 

When the news broke that Congress passed the C.R., I posted this question in the channel, I asked, “Congress just passed a two-day stopgap spending bill to keep the government funded through Sunday.  Trump is expected to sign tonight to avert government shutdown. 

You all think they’ll finalize a deal on stimulus and the government funding omnibus before the weekend ends?”  Twenty-two percent of you said yes, you think they’ll finalize a stimulus and government funding bill before the weekend ends, before midnight Sunday, and seventy-eight percent of you said no. 

Now, as I mentioned yesterday, before the C.R. was passed, Senators Josh Hawley and Bernie Sanders did push for twelve-hundred-dollar stimulus checks yesterday, but as expected they were shot down, Republican Senator Ron Johnson blocked the proposal, and if he didn’t I’m sure some other Republican would have. 

And, perhaps disappointing to some of us, Hawley and Sanders backed down, they did not ultimately block the two-day government funding extension, despite some threats particularly from Bernie Sanders of being willing to do just that last week.  Remember, last Friday when Congress passed the one-week stopgap measure, Bernie said, “I am prepared to withdraw my objection at this moment, [referring to his objection to the one-week stopgap measure].  I will not be prepared to withdraw an objection next week. 

We will deal with the financial crisis facing tens of millions of Americans.”  Well, he did make an objection yesterday to the two-day stopgap measure, but he also withdrew it.  Is this a sign that he and Hawley as well are resigned to six hundred dollar stimulus checks rather than twelve hundred?  We’ll see, we’ll see how the weekend transpires. 

Bernie Sanders did say yesterday on the Senate floor, “Majority Leader McConnell and I do not agree on much but as I understand it we are in agreement on at least one point and that is that the Senate cannot go home until a COVID emergency relief bill is passed.” 

He went on to say, “Let me be absolutely clear that I will object to any attempt by the Senate to pass an omnibus appropriations bill and leave town before passing a COVID relief bill with substantial direct payments going to working people,” so he’s kind of leaving his threat for another day, namely tomorrow, but of course the question is then what does he consider “substantial”? 

He was very specific before, twelve hundred dollars, but now he’s just using this broad term he’s not going to let the Senate leave town until they pass a COVID relief bill with “substantial direct payments.”  He has obviously thrown cold water on the notion of six hundred dollar stimulus checks in favor of twelve hundred dollar checks, but yesterday after making this statement on the Senate floor he declined to answer a question from a reporter on whether he considers six hundred dollars “substantial.” 

So what do you think?  Did Bernie cop out here, should he have held up the two-day stopgap measure for the sake of twelve hundred dollar stimulus checks, or did he do the right thing here by withdrawing his objection because if he hadn’t the situation could have possibly descended into more chaos? 

Now, about Josh Hawley, I told you yesterday that he expressed that he feels that he is in the dark here on what exactly Congressional leaders are actually proposing, he hasn’t even seen this bill that’s apparently been floating around congressional leadership, and I imagine that many other rank-and-file members of Congress feel the same, but apparently they’re supposed to vote on this thing, best case scenario, tomorrow unless all this gets delayed again.  And, this is an absolute shame, Congress knew we were facing this cliff with the eviction moratorium and PUA and PEUC months ago, maybe in the CARES Act we can’t blame them for not making these provisions longer or giving more money to the people because maybe at that time we may have reasonably thought, “OK, this coronavirus, it’s going to last a few months, maybe die out in the summer, let’s do a twelve hundred dollar stimulus check, boosted unemployment through July, then we’ll be back to normal by fall,” that was a reasonable position to take arguably, we didn’t know a lot about COVID-19 back then, that obviously didn’t happen, and I think when cases started picking up again in late September it was obvious that this is something that will be with us for a while at least until vaccine distribution is done en masse, which at that point many people didn’t think we’d have two approved vaccines before the end of the year, which we do now, Pfizer and Moderna, a reasonable position to take back in late September was, hey, we need to extend assistance all the way through twenty-twenty-one and we have this cliff coming in December, my point is they saw this cliff from months away, and yet here they are at the last minute trying to cobble something together, Congressional leadership trying to cobble something together, meanwhile rank-and-file members are in the dark and just expected to vote how their party says they should vote, it’s sad, but that’s the situation. 

House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer said that while he is hopeful that an agreement will be reached in the near future, there are still significant issues outstanding.  Republican Senator John Cornyn painted this all as very normal, though he said, “This is just the normal pain associated with getting to a final solution.” 

The big issue continues to be the CARES Act lending facilities, Republicans want to end them permanently and prevent Democrats from reviving them next year, Democrats obviously do not want that, they want this lever in place in case they need it, and this goes back to the same issue weeks ago with Mnuchin saying he wants to end these lending facilities at the end of the year and request the Fed give back the appropriated funds to Treasury because they had served their purpose, Dems were making a big stink about that despite the utilization of these programs being so low, I think in my November Twenty-Second update I went over some of these facilities and pointing out that the one for state and local governments, it’s only made two loans, one to Illinois, and one to the New York MTA, New Jersey thought about using the facility, but it found cheaper money in the private bond market. 

So I really wouldn’t agree with Republican Senator Pat Toomey’s assessment here that these programs make the Fed the lender of first resort because clearly they haven’t because clearly not a lot of people used these programs. 

So what am I saying?  I’m saying it would be an absolute shame if relief and government funding get held up further on account of this.  Senate is in session today, they will start at I think Eleven A.M. Eastern, so just in a little bit here, pushing through administrative business, judicial nominees of course, Mitch’s favorite thing, House is not in session today, will be in session tomorrow, will take first votes at One P.M. Eastern tomorrow, so it sounds like the gameplan is that behind the scenes today a deal will be worked on but the activity on the floor of the houses of Congress will not take place until tomorrow unless something changes in the gameplan that we’ve seen right now. 

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