Why is There a Coin Shortage?
You may or may not have heard about this story, it actually took me by surprise. I had never really considered the possibility of a coin shortage, but we had a toilet paper shortage too—it’s 2020, so why not right?
Don’t want to read? Watch the video here!
There were a few reports about this issue throughout June, but it really picked up when the Federal Reserve released a statement titled “Why do US coins seem to be in short supply?” on July 27th. Later on in July, they actually created a special task force to investigate and respond to the shortage.
At this point it became a national story, people started to worry about the coin shortage, and you might be wondering whether this is just a temporary problem or whether it’s going to continue affecting availability.
So this article is going to cover the coin shortage, why it’s happening, how bad it is, and how I expect the situation to develop over the rest of the year.
What’s Causing the Shortage?
First I want to start with the statement from the Federal Reserve, which explained that the shortage isn’t related to any issues with production or distribution.
Production vs Circulation
They said “while there is an adequate overall amount of coins in the economy, the slowed pace of circulation has reduced available inventories in some areas of the country.” Later on they clarified that “since mid-June, the U.S. Mint has been operating at full production capacity, minting almost 1.6 billion coins in June and is on track to mint 1.65 billion coins per month for the remainder of the year.”
Now this is a little ambiguous in terms of production up until mid-June, they don’t say how much it was down before that, but still it’s clear that they don’t see this as a shortage in the usual sense.
There are enough coins, as many as always at least, but they’re circulating much more slowly during the pandemic, and that makes sense—vending machines, laundromats, car wash vacuums, a lot of places where you would usually be using coins aren’t necessarily open right now.
Credit Cards and Online Purchases
Furthermore, research indicates that credit cards are now being used for 82.1 percent of retail purchases compared to just 78.7 percent in January.
Then on the other hand, Americans are spending more time at home, making more purchases online, ordering delivery. So people aren’t shopping in stores as often, and when they do shop in stores they are more likely to use credit cards.
That all adds up to less circulation, which is why there can be a shortage even without a change in the total number of coins.
More coins are staying where they are rather than being spent. Similarly, businesses have started requesting fewer coins from banks.
How Long Will the Shortage Last?
With that in mind, it wouldn’t be surprising for the shortage to continue as long as in-store spending is down. The end of the Federal Reserve’s statement touches on this point, but it doesn’t offer any specific predictions: “As the economy recovers and businesses reopen, more coins will flow back into retail and banking channels and eventually into the Federal Reserve, which should allow for the rebuilding of coin inventories.”
So the supply will gradually correct itself over the next few months, maybe longer depending on whether businesses are able to reopen and whether the US gets more control over the pandemic. I’d like to say this is just a temporary issue, and maybe it will normalize during the fall, but again there are just too many moving parts to make any definitive statements right now.
Pennies and Nickels
One interesting issue this shortage might lead to is the continued production of pennies. I’ve seen people across the political spectrum raise this point, that it costs at least two cents to produce a single penny, which leads to annual losses of nearly $70 million.
Now this is also true for the nickel, which costs more than ten cents to produce, but it may not be as much of a problem because pennies actually make up most of the coins that are created every year.
Do We Still Need Pennies?
Sure the penny might have been worth minting 50 years ago or 100 years ago, but the reality is that it should have already been phased out, and we should probably be taking a closer look at whether the nickel is still relevant.
Canada stopped producing pennies in 2012, so it’s not like it hasn’t been done before.
And it’s especially problematic at a time like this, we’re running low on coins but could we just move resources away from pennies and nickels in order to focus on dimes and quarters?
We could even consider minting more 50-cent coins, now I’m not an expert, I’m sure this is a lot easier said than done, but it seems like a good idea to move away from coins that aren’t even worth the cost of production.
Even Quarters Are Less Valuable Than Pennies Were in 1857
In 1857, for example, a penny was worth the equivalent of 30 cents now, and that was still the smallest denomination minted by the federal government.
Even tenth-cent mill coins, which were relatively rare and only produced by states and local governments, would still be worth around three pennies in 2020.
Rounding Totals
Now one response to that is well, you wouldn’t be able to pay for anything that didn’t come out to a multiple of five, or ten if we stopped making nickels.
And that’s true, but rounding to the nearest five or ten cents would actually tend to work out over time since an equal number of purchases would be rounded up and down.
Of course businesses might try to take advantage of this by rounding up, maybe things that were $9.99 are now $10, but on the other hand they would also have the option to round down to $9.95, which is basically the same situation we have now with prices that end in either $x.99 or $x.00.
One problem that could arise here is taxes on really small purchases, for example if you pay $1 for something and there’s a 5 percent tax, if there aren’t any pennies or nickels they’re going to round up to 10, and that could potentially lead to some imbalances.
But that being said I think we would be able to solve those issues, for example by including taxes in prices rather than adding them to the subtotal, now that’s just one idea but I don’t think rounding errors should stop us from addressing the problem.
Just to wrap up, the coin shortage is a relatively widespread issue, and it’s primarily caused by reduced circulation rather than reduced production.
It could take a few months or longer to bring those levels back to normal. And ultimately that’s going to depend on how effectively we contain the spread of coronavirus since that’s the main reason people aren’t using as many coins as they were in January or February.
If we’re able to reduce cases, start opening up schools and businesses safely, people will start to go back to their old routines and stabilize coin circulation.
On the other hand, the shortage will become even more severe if coin-friendly businesses are forced to stay closed for the rest of the year or even beyond that. And of course regardless of what happens with coronavirus this situation will probably put even more pressure on the Federal Reserve and the Mint to reconsider the production of pennies and nickels, in my view that’s an obvious flaw, you spend twice as much to make a penny as it’s actually worth, and that’s the coin you’re making the most of?
Doesn’t sound like a very efficient system. As I mentioned earlier in the article, it’s hard to say whether the shortage is affecting the entire country equally, or whether it’s particularly bad in certain locations.
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국외선물은 국외에서 거래되는 파생금융상품 중 하나로, 특정 기반자산(예시: 주식, 화폐, 상품 등)을 바탕로 한 옵션계약 약정을 말합니다. 본질적으로 옵션은 지정된 기초자산을 향후의 특정한 시기에 일정 금액에 사거나 팔 수 있는 자격을 부여합니다. 해외선물옵션은 이러한 옵션 계약이 해외 마켓에서 거래되는 것을 뜻합니다.
외국선물은 크게 매수 옵션과 풋 옵션으로 나뉩니다. 콜 옵션은 지정된 기초자산을 미래에 정해진 금액에 매수하는 권리를 허락하는 반면, 풋 옵션은 지정된 기초자산을 미래에 정해진 가격에 매도할 수 있는 권리를 부여합니다.
옵션 계약에서는 미래의 특정 일자에 (만료일이라 불리는) 일정 가격에 기초자산을 사거나 팔 수 있는 권리를 가지고 있습니다. 이러한 가격을 실행 가격이라고 하며, 만료일에는 해당 권리를 실행할지 여부를 선택할 수 있습니다. 따라서 옵션 계약은 거래자에게 향후의 가격 변화에 대한 안전장치나 이익 창출의 기회를 부여합니다.
외국선물은 시장 참가자들에게 다양한 투자 및 차익거래 기회를 마련, 환율, 상품, 주식 등 다양한 자산군에 대한 옵션 계약을 포괄할 수 있습니다. 투자자는 풋 옵션을 통해 기초자산의 하향에 대한 보호를 받을 수 있고, 매수 옵션을 통해 활황에서의 이익을 노릴 수 있습니다.
외국선물 거래의 원리
실행 금액(Exercise Price): 국외선물에서 행사 금액은 옵션 계약에 따라 명시된 가격으로 약정됩니다. 종료일에 이 가격을 기준으로 옵션을 실현할 수 있습니다.
만료일(Expiration Date): 옵션 계약의 종료일은 옵션의 실행이 허용되지않는 마지막 일자를 뜻합니다. 이 일자 다음에는 옵션 계약이 종료되며, 더 이상 거래할 수 없습니다.
매도 옵션(Put Option)과 콜 옵션(Call Option): 풋 옵션은 기초자산을 명시된 가격에 팔 수 있는 권리를 부여하며, 콜 옵션은 기초자산을 지정된 금액에 사는 권리를 부여합니다.
프리미엄(Premium): 국외선물 거래에서는 옵션 계약에 대한 계약료을 납부해야 합니다. 이는 옵션 계약에 대한 비용으로, 시장에서의 수요와 공급량에 따라 변화됩니다.
실행 방식(Exercise Strategy): 거래자는 만료일에 옵션을 실행할지 여부를 판단할 수 있습니다. 이는 마켓 상황 및 투자 플랜에 따라 차이가있으며, 옵션 계약의 수익을 최대화하거나 손실을 감소하기 위해 판단됩니다.
마켓 리스크(Market Risk): 외국선물 거래는 시장의 변화추이에 영향을 받습니다. 시세 변동이 기대치 못한 진로으로 일어날 경우 손실이 발생할 수 있으며, 이러한 시장 위험요인를 최소화하기 위해 투자자는 전략을 구축하고 투자를 설계해야 합니다.
골드리치증권와 함께하는 국외선물은 보장된 신뢰할 수 있는 운용을 위한 가장좋은 선택입니다. 고객님들의 투자를 지지하고 안내하기 위해 우리는 전력을 다하고 있습니다. 공동으로 더 나은 내일를 향해 전진하세요.
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