Biden Meets With GOP; Manchin Will Support Reconciliation

Alright everyone I’m Logan Allec, I’m a CPA, and this is my update for Tuesday, February 2nd. One of the big stories yesterday was the meeting between Biden and ten of the more moderate Republican senators who wanted to make this a bipartisan negotiation. I’ve been saying this almost every day, so most of you have probably heard by now, but if the Republicans want a say in stimulus, it’s crucial that they have at least ten senators who are willing to negotiate because ten Republicans plus all 50 Democrats equals 60 votes, which is how many you need to override the filibuster in the Senate on most legislation. On the other hand, if the Democrats want to pass something on their own, they can use the process of budget reconciliation to pass it with a simple majority, which means the 50 Democrats with the tie breaking vote cast by Kamala Harris who is President of the Senate. So if you’re one of those ten Republican senators, you’d obviously rather have your $600 billion plan than their $1.9 trillion plan, of course, but you also know that Democrats will not go for something so low and you will probably have a better opportunity to make an impact if you agree to work with them, and that way you’ll at least have some input rather than being left behind for a vote that goes on party lines. And if you’re a Democrat, reconciliation gives you the chance to walk away from any bipartisan negotiations, so you have a lot more leverage when it comes to working out this stimulus.  So Biden met with these senators yesterday, and Republican Senator Susan Collins told the media “I think it was an excellent meeting and we’re very appreciative that, as his first official meeting in the Oval Office, the president chose to spend so much time with us in a frank and very useful discussion.” Biden’s press secretary Jen Psaki had a similar statement, she called talks “substantive and productive,” but at the same time she didn’t sound very optimistic about the possibility of a deal being struck in the near future, she said “while there were areas of agreement, the President also reiterated his view that Congress must respond boldly and urgently, and noted many areas which the Republican senators’ proposal does not address….while he is hopeful that the rescue plan can pass with bipartisan support, a reconciliation package is a path to achieve that end. The President also made clear that the American Rescue Plan was carefully designed to meet the stakes of the moment, and any changes in it cannot leave the nation short of its pressing needs.” So they are talking, they are at least trying to find some common ground, but I’m not sure that this meeting represents much of a step forward for Republicans who wanted to get more involved in these negotiations. One thing that came out of this is a report that while Biden wasn’t willing to move his target of fourteen hundred dollar stimulus checks, he remains committed to that amount, he promised, right, but he would consider targeting them more narrowly. The Republicans’ six hundred billion dollar plan drops the income limits from $75,000 for single filers and $150,000 for joint filers to get a full check to $40,000 and $80,000 to get a full check respectively with the full phaseout under the Republicans’ plan at $50,000 for single filers and $100,000 for married filing joint filers.  I’m not sure that Biden would entertain figures that low, Biden’s press secretary did say that Biden believes that a couple who earns a total of $120,000 a year in Scranton, where Biden is from, should still be eligible for a check. So he may have some room to move off of his original target, but probably not to the point that those ten Republican senators have in mind. And when the White House press secretary comes out after a meeting like this and says hey, we can still vote for a reconciliation bill, to me that’s a sign that the White House isn’t particularly concerned with whether this bill goes through the normal channels, whether it’s passed through reconciliation, or whether any Republicans end up voting for it.  Overall this meeting just seems to reinforce what we already knew, which is that Biden was at least open to working on a bipartisan bill, he made a good showing of it yesterday by meeting with these ten Republicans, but that he’s still mostly committed to his original proposal and won’t negotiate too far from that $1.9 trillion plan.  But keep in mind that even reconciliation isn’t necessarily a sure thing, the Democrats would need every single senator in the party to support their budget resolution, and there were some concerns that Joe Manchin and other moderate Democrats, especially those who were elected in red states, would push back on that and force the Democrats to make some pretty major adjustments in order to get enough people onboard. News did break today that Manchin is planning to vote for the Democrats’ budget resolution which would make reconciliation possible, so he won’t spoil this for them, he was probably the most likely Democrat to vote against them here so it was critical for them to get his support if they wanted to avoid having to work with the Republicans to get something done. Now Manchin doesn’t support the $15 minimum wage, and he may push back on some of the provisions in the $1.9 trillion bill, so this doesn’t necessarily mean that he’s going to vote for anything and everything mainstream Democrats want to pass, mind you. I know the reconciliation process is a little complicated, but basically they will vote on a budget resolution first, that’s going to have some general provisions, and it will also call for reconciliation, which means that it will ask congressional committees to pass additional legislation in order to fill out the specifics of the resolution and make sure it aligns with the rest of their budget. So again, just because you vote for that budget resolution doesn’t mean negotiations are over or anything like that, and Manchin will have a lot of power if he decides to vote against any of the Democrats’ proposals and leave them one vote short of a simple majority.  So that’s it for the stimulus today, let’s move on to the impeachment of Donald Trump.  Democratic managers of the impeachment process in the House released a brief detailing their case against former President Trump. This is an 80-page document, and a lot of it rehashes events that you might already be aware of. For example, Trump told people that the only way he could lose was if the election was rigged, he put pressure on the Georgia secretary of state, he told his supporters to fight like hell, et cetera et cetera. After discussing what happened, they go on to make the case for impeachment being constitutional and conviction being necessary. If you followed my updates last week you may remember that almost every Republican in the Senate, 45 out of 50, voted for a resolution that claimed that convicting Trump would be unconstitutional since he’s no longer in office. However, as the impeachment managers point out, the impeachment happened while Trump was still in office, so they don’t consider this the impeachment of a former president as much as the impeachment of a president that continues after he leaves office. And the Constitution says that “the Senate shall have the sole power to try all impeachments,” and that part at least makes it sound like this would be constitutional. I’ll put a link to the document in the description in case any of you want to read it in more detail, but ultimately impeachment is more of a political process than a legal one, so whether or not the arguments hold up won’t really make a difference if the vote is going to go down party lines anyway. This is a step forward in the process, and these are the arguments they’ll be using once the trial starts next week, but at the same time I don’t think it will have much of an impact in terms of how likely the Senate is to actually convict, which will require all 50 Democrats plus 17 out of the 50 Republicans. So in my mind none of the senators who thought impeachment was unconstitutional last week is going to be swayed by the arguments the Democrats are making. Now there have been a lot of arguments about this, whether or not you can impeach someone after they leave office, and it would be great to read your thoughts in the comments and how you think this is going to go over the next few weeks. Alright, everybody, that is my update for today, thank you so much for watching, and I will see you in the next video, buh-bye.

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