Bernie Wants to Bypass Republicans on $15/Hr Minimum Wage

This is my update for Wednesday, January 27th. I mentioned yesterday that Chuck Schumer, the Senate Majority Leader, was planning to bring a budget resolution to the Senate floor as early as next week, which the Democrats could use to pass another stimulus bill through reconciliation, which only requires a simple majority.

Obviously there’s some friction both between the Democrats and Republicans and also within the Democratic party on this point, and moderate Democrats like Manchin and Sinema could make it tough for the party to pass anything without at least working with the other side. I don’t know how this is going to play out, but Steny Hoyer, the House Majority Leader, said last night that he scheduled a vote for next week which will give Democrats the opportunity to pass a stimulus bill through reconciliation. He also laid out their schedule for the near future — they’ll be working on that reconciliation package after next week, and they aren’t planning any floor votes for the following two weeks, which run from February 8th to 19th.

The House will then reconvene on February 23rd, and Hoyer also removed a planned two-week recess from March 1st through 12th, so it looks like we may see some floor votes at that point, which means that Biden could — and I do stress the word “could” — have a bill on his desk in less than two months depending on how the negotiations play out. But at this point it’s possible that given the Republican “meh” attitude toward stimulus we could see Democrats try to pass something through reconciliation. You may know this already if you’ve been following the channel or you’ve been following the stimulus negotiations, but reconciliation basically allows them to get around the filibuster and pass that bill with as little as 50 votes. 

I know that’s confusing, reconciliation almost just sounds like a trick to get around the filibuster, and that’s not entirely wrong, but it is an important part of the budgetary process. Usually the President gives Congress a budget, each house votes on it, and assuming it passes then both houses will need to adjust existing legislation to match whatever the new budget is. In 2017, for example, the Republicans voted for Trump’s tax cuts, and then they had to use reconciliation to decide exactly how they wanted to tweak spending under the parameters of the original budget resolution. And debate on reconciliation bills is limited to 20 hours, so you can’t use the filibuster to stop them from being passed, which is why reconciliation only requires a simple majority.

Again, Hoyer didn’t come out and say that they’re committed to using reconciliation or anything like that, maybe they’ll still try to negotiate, but they’re at least getting in a position where they’ll be able to pass something on their own if they can’t get the Republicans to meet them halfway, or more than halfway, on some of their priorities when it comes to the stimulus. And of course that puts more pressure on the Republicans to come to the table and make some concessions since they know the Democrats don’t necessarily need them on board.  So another day and yet again nothing concrete on the stimulus, but we did see some movement on the impeachment trial. With a 50/50 breakdown in the Senate, Schumer will need every Democrat plus at least 17 Republicans to support the conviction, and Rand Paul pushed back yesterday by creating a motion to declare that an impeachment trial would be unconstitutional. And the motion failed —  all 50 Democrats voted against it, and only five Republicans joined them, you can probably guess some of these, the usual suspects, Ben Sasse, Susan Collins, Lisa Murkowski, Pat Toomey, and Mitt Romney. 

So there has been some argument on this issue, right, both in Congress and between legal scholars, whether you can actually impeach someone who’s already out of office. And Rand Paul has been leading the charge against that idea, he said “this proceeding, which would try a private citizen and not a president, a vice president or civil officer, violates the Constitution and is not in order.” Now whether or not you think the trial is constitutional is distinct from whether or not you want to convict. For example Rob Portman, who voted for Rand Paul’s motion, said that “it’s a totally different issue.” I guess it’s technically possible that someone would vote to convict even after voting for this motion, but personally I don’t see the logic there, and I definitely don’t see it happening with at least twelve more G.O.P. Senators, which is what the Democrats need to convict here.

So to me this is just one more sign that there’s no real chance at a conviction for Donald Trump, and at most it looks like just a handful of Republicans might be willing to vote for it as a kind of messaging play.    In other news, Democrats reintroduced legislation to implement the $15 federal minimum wage, which is something Biden has brought up in some recent speeches and in his stimulus proposal.

They’re obviously going to face some tough opposition, I doubt they’re going to find ten Republicans who support it, and Bernie indicated that he would consider using reconciliation to get around that requirement. He said, “I think common sense makes this point: if millions of workers receive a pay increase, there will be less dependency on public assistance, which will have a significant impact on the deficit, which means that it should be considered as part of reconciliation.” But John Yarmuth, the Democratic chair of the House Budget Committee, almost immediately responded by calling it a “stretch” and saying that he doesn’t think it’s the smartest thing to do because it would inevitably come up against the Byrd rule.

So as I said before reconciliation allows the Senate to make budgetary changes without having to overcome the filibuster, but it can only be used on things that are related to the budget. Technically you can’t use reconciliation to pass anything that doesn’t “produce a change in outlays or revenues” or that only incidentally produces changes. Yes, a federal minimum wage would change outlays and revenues, but I would argue, and I think even some Senate Democrats would argue that those changes are only incidental in this case, and that a federal minimum wage is outside the scope of reconciliation.

So this isn’t something I expect to get off the ground in the near future. I know there are a lot of arguments on both sides of the $15 minimum wage, I would love to read your ideas there in the comments.  In COVID news, the Biden administration also announced plans to buy 200 million more vaccine doses from Moderna and Pfizer. That brings the eventual vaccine capacity to a total of 600 million, which means that they’ve bought enough to vaccinate 300 million people, or a little over 90% of the population. Those new doses won’t be available until the summer, so it will still be a while before we can get most people vaccinated. Fortunately, they are planning to boost dose distribution to 10 million per week for at least the next three weeks, and with over 41 million people already vaccinated, those doses will take us above 70 million. 

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  179. Hi would you mind sharing which blog platform you’re using?
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