This is my update for Wednesday, January 27th. I mentioned yesterday that Chuck Schumer, the Senate Majority Leader, was planning to bring a budget resolution to the Senate floor as early as next week, which the Democrats could use to pass another stimulus bill through reconciliation, which only requires a simple majority.
Obviously there’s some friction both between the Democrats and Republicans and also within the Democratic party on this point, and moderate Democrats like Manchin and Sinema could make it tough for the party to pass anything without at least working with the other side. I don’t know how this is going to play out, but Steny Hoyer, the House Majority Leader, said last night that he scheduled a vote for next week which will give Democrats the opportunity to pass a stimulus bill through reconciliation. He also laid out their schedule for the near future — they’ll be working on that reconciliation package after next week, and they aren’t planning any floor votes for the following two weeks, which run from February 8th to 19th.
The House will then reconvene on February 23rd, and Hoyer also removed a planned two-week recess from March 1st through 12th, so it looks like we may see some floor votes at that point, which means that Biden could — and I do stress the word “could” — have a bill on his desk in less than two months depending on how the negotiations play out. But at this point it’s possible that given the Republican “meh” attitude toward stimulus we could see Democrats try to pass something through reconciliation. You may know this already if you’ve been following the channel or you’ve been following the stimulus negotiations, but reconciliation basically allows them to get around the filibuster and pass that bill with as little as 50 votes.
I know that’s confusing, reconciliation almost just sounds like a trick to get around the filibuster, and that’s not entirely wrong, but it is an important part of the budgetary process. Usually the President gives Congress a budget, each house votes on it, and assuming it passes then both houses will need to adjust existing legislation to match whatever the new budget is. In 2017, for example, the Republicans voted for Trump’s tax cuts, and then they had to use reconciliation to decide exactly how they wanted to tweak spending under the parameters of the original budget resolution. And debate on reconciliation bills is limited to 20 hours, so you can’t use the filibuster to stop them from being passed, which is why reconciliation only requires a simple majority.
Again, Hoyer didn’t come out and say that they’re committed to using reconciliation or anything like that, maybe they’ll still try to negotiate, but they’re at least getting in a position where they’ll be able to pass something on their own if they can’t get the Republicans to meet them halfway, or more than halfway, on some of their priorities when it comes to the stimulus. And of course that puts more pressure on the Republicans to come to the table and make some concessions since they know the Democrats don’t necessarily need them on board. So another day and yet again nothing concrete on the stimulus, but we did see some movement on the impeachment trial. With a 50/50 breakdown in the Senate, Schumer will need every Democrat plus at least 17 Republicans to support the conviction, and Rand Paul pushed back yesterday by creating a motion to declare that an impeachment trial would be unconstitutional. And the motion failed — all 50 Democrats voted against it, and only five Republicans joined them, you can probably guess some of these, the usual suspects, Ben Sasse, Susan Collins, Lisa Murkowski, Pat Toomey, and Mitt Romney.
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They’re obviously going to face some tough opposition, I doubt they’re going to find ten Republicans who support it, and Bernie indicated that he would consider using reconciliation to get around that requirement. He said, “I think common sense makes this point: if millions of workers receive a pay increase, there will be less dependency on public assistance, which will have a significant impact on the deficit, which means that it should be considered as part of reconciliation.” But John Yarmuth, the Democratic chair of the House Budget Committee, almost immediately responded by calling it a “stretch” and saying that he doesn’t think it’s the smartest thing to do because it would inevitably come up against the Byrd rule.
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